Well, the election is over. However, the shouting has just begun. The electorate has mumbled, not spoken. Labour has lost around 90 seats or so, with some high-profile losses such as Jacqui Smith and Charles Clarke, former Home Secretaries, and some junior ministers. The Tories have gained around 90 seats, some in Wales, which was surprising. The Liberal Democrats have lost quite a few seats, including Lembit Opik, the erstwhile consort of one of the Cheeky Girls, and Susan Kramer. My own MP, Simon Hughes (Liberal Democrat) was returned with an increased majority, crushing the Labour candidate and leaving the Conservative in the dust. The Greens have their first-ever MP, in Brighton (the gay mecca of England).
Now when the smoke clears, the difficulty is that no party commands a majority in the new House of Commons. This has not happened in 36 years, since the first election of 1974.
For those who are not living in a parliamentary democracy with more than one possible governing party, here is the situation.
Gordon Brown is still Prime Minister. Even though his party no longer commands a majority, he gets the first try at forming a working majority in the House. This is why the electorate shoudn’t mumble so much. They are mumbling “We don’t want Gordon.” but they didn’t speak clearly enough.
The big loser of the night is Nick Clegg. There was a flurry of newspaper stories after the first debate intimating that the Liberal Democrats would do very very well indeed. The polls said the same thing. But, as usual with the British voter, s/he got into the voting booth and thought, “Oh, no, I can’t vote for the Lib Dems. They can’t win.” This happens in every election and no one seems to have mentioned it this time. Well, the truisms of former elections seem to have held true this time.
Another surprise was the fact that many polling stations, which were required by law to close at 10 pm sharp, had long queues of people waiting in vain to vote. The doors are shut and no more ballots were given out. There were many angry voters who were not allowed to vote. The Electoral Commissioner has said that the law is clear and the Returning Officers are responsible for the orderly conduct of the vote. Some polling stations ran out of ballots, and didn’t bother to get any more. Something will be done, no doubt. The Electoral Commissioner says that we have a Victorian voting system, which is true. I believe that in the United States, generally, if you are in a queue to vote when the polls close, you are allowed to vote. I think that’s the only reform needed here.
So what will happen? Labour will try to form a minority government, It won’t be able to command a majority and will lose a vote of confidence. However, this won’t happen until the end of May. Then David Cameron will try to form a minority government, and he will probably not lose a vote of confidence. What he will try to do is get some flashy programs off the ground so that he can have another election by the end of the year—probably in October. The Liberal Democrats will sit tight and not upset anyone’s applecart, hoping for proportional voting to be brought in by a referendum (under a Labour government).