The General Election has become pretty tiresome in the last few days. New Labour has taken fright at the number of people who are attracted to the Liberal Democrats’ stand against the war in Iraq, and now are trying to convince wavering voters that a vote for the LibDems will allow Michael Howard into Downing Street by the back door. (I’ve seen the back door into Downing Street, and it’s as well protected as the front door).
I believe that this blog from qwghlm references evidence that the political life of the country is changing dramatically. Worth a read.
I am a Liberal Democrat (paid-up member even). One of the reasons is that they are forthright about their plans. Going into an election saying that they will raise taxes is not normally a way to garner votes. There is a crying need in this country to be frank about the facts. The economy is good at the moment, but New Labour are storing up trouble for the future, are not being frank about their tax plans (or are too ignorant to understand why there may be a need for higher/different taxes–which is worse, I don’t know), are running (again!) with a man who is a proven liar (or ignorant–ditto the last parenthesised remark), and someone who has allowed his ego and ambition to overshadow the good of the country. Michael Howard is maliciously playing upon the natural xenophobia of an island nation and downplaying the facts: immigration is (in general) good for a country that is becoming a provider of services. Who’s going to wash the dishes and pick the tomatoes that the Islington set puts on their foccacia? As for tax cuts, I don’t believe that the Conservatives actually think they’ll be able to cut taxes that much. Saying they will is pandering to the natural human tendency to want lots of public services for free. Nothing comes for free. The inevitable cuts in public services would rebound on the Tories.
But another reason is more personal. Our local MP, Simon Hughes, helped HWMBO and me when HWMBO’s application for temporary leave to remain as my partner was lost by the Home Office. He asked them where it was, and they miraculously found it and approved it, all within a month. More to the point, I had posted in a Usenet newsgroup and in uk-motss about our plight and the fact that we were writing Simon for help. One of Simon’s assistants read my post and emailed me directly, asking how Simon could help! This is an MP who knows a lot about constituency services and who hires people who care about his constituents too. The help started before they’d even gotten our letter.
So we’d vote for Simon no matter what. The Tory candidate in Southwark North and Bermondsey doesn’t even register on the radar. The New Labour candidate hasn’t bothered to canvass around here nor even leave any of her literature. This seat used to be safe for Old Labour up until Simon squared off against Peter Tatchell in 1983. They haven’t really gotten a look-in since (although Simon got a scare in the 1997 election as the Labour candidate came within about 3000 votes of unseating him).
The old American adage that “all politics is local” is, I believe, starting to come true here in the UK. Local candidates with stands on local issues can get elected, even if they are independents (a doctor who campaigned to save a local hospital won in 2001 and is running again).
Politics is full of surprises. I think that Labour will come in with about a 100-seat majority. I think the LibDems will come in at about 65-70 seats (which would be their best in almost a century). The Conservatives will, as has been usual, turn on their leader after the debacle as Howard will be too old to fight another general election, assuming a 4-year term for this Parliament (he’s 65 or so now). To whom will they turn? Ken Clarke is also too old, Malcolm Rifkind is still the Old Guard, John Redwood is too maverick, Portillo is too out of politics (as well as being too pink), Oliver Letwin may be out of Parliament–and if he is elected, he may be too concerned with his own majority to bother with leading the party. Until Margaret Thatcher (and her little dog Tebbit too!) finally kick the bucket, the shadow of Thatcherism will poison the Conservative Party .
Which brings me to my real fear in British politics: the lack of an effective opposition. In the United States, the separation of powers means that Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary keep each other in check (sometimes: the current signs from Washington aren’t too good). However, due to our history, the United Kingdom has no separation of powers: they all inhere in the Crown and in Parliament. The Prime Minister and Cabinet can basically do whatever they agree to do as long as they have a loyal group of backbenchers to follow them. The Opposition (and there is a reason they’re called Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition) are there to call attention to what the government is doing, to criticise it constructively, to work in committee to amend and improve bills, to work in the Lords to revise bills sent from the Commons, and generally to ensure that the Government doesn’t always get its unalloyed way. If the Opposition is ineffective (as it has been during all of Labour’s 8 years in office, since the Tories have been too busy tearing each other apart to be effective) then the Government can basically do whatever it wants. This is a bad thing, as no party or Government has all the answers even if it has a large majority.
We need an effective Opposition. If the Tories can’t get their act together soon (and I think they have one more Parliament to do it in) then we will need to think of alternatives. The Liberal Democrats seem to be that alternative, at the moment. Getting nearly 70 seats in this Parliament will help move people’s opinions, as up until recently they were too small to be thought of as an opposition party or even as a potential government.
So if you’re a British voter, please ensure that you do your duty this Thursday and vote for whomever you think is the best candidate in your constituency.
First off, I have been following the current UK election campaign via rebroadcasts of the ITV News on NewsWorld International (an offshoot of the CBC that is carried by cable systems here in the USA).
Speaking from the other side of the Big Pond, I might mention that your remarks about the absence of an effective opposition rings true here as well (and, from what I hear, in Australia also).
The Republican Party is trying every dirty electoral and parliamentary trick possible to completely freeze the Democrats out of all three branches of government. You may have heard about “the nuclear option” — this is the Republicans’ proposal to rewrite the rules of the Senate to disallow the use of the filibuster (unlimited debate) in the confirmation of judicial nominees, so they can receive the “advice and consent of the Senate” (apropos of which, apparently Advise and Consent is just about to be released on DVD) without the Democrats being able to prevent it.
It seems like the worst possible parties and candidates are being retained in office by the lack of an effective alternative. One would hope a true multi-party system like the British parliamentary system would help, but it’s looking depressingly similar to the US elections in which third parties have played a role.
I’m aware of the US situation, but I think that it’s only a matter of time before the tables are turned yet again. USans don’t normally like a government where all three branches of government are controlled by the same party or ideology…it makes them (us? I’m still a US citizen) nervous. It may take time, but it’ll happen. Hubris is a great leveller of politicians.
Here it’s more complicated. The Tories have had four leaders since May 1997 (Sir John Major, William Hague, What’s-his-name, and Michael Howard). None has been able to be effective against Blair’s constant changing of the subject when confronted in PM’s questions. However, Blair will be going before the end of the Parliament asbout to be elected. Howard probably won’t stick around long if he’s resoundingly defeated: he’s in his late mid 60’s (I think he’s 65 or 66) and will be too old to fight another election in 4 or 5 years’ time.
Looking ahead 10-15 years, I think that unless the Tories score very well and acquire an effective leader, it’s possible that the Liberal Democrats will become the left-wing party, and Labour the right-wing one, with the Tories coming a poor third. Their membership and natural constituency are dying off daily and they are not replenishing them at the younger end.